第一财经·2026-01-15 13:23Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently in a downward cycle, with major listed companies facing significant losses in their 2025 performance forecasts due to overcapacity, intense price competition, and a complex overseas trade environment [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Major photovoltaic companies such as Daqo New Energy, JinkoSolar, and Trina Solar have announced expected losses for 2025, indicating ongoing pressure in the industry [4][5]. - Daqo New Energy reported a net profit loss of 1.073 billion yuan for the first three quarters of the previous year, and the forecast indicates consecutive losses for 2024 and 2025 [5]. - JinkoSolar and Trina Solar are also expected to continue facing losses in 2025, with net profit losses of 3.92 billion yuan and 4.2 billion yuan respectively for the first three quarters of 2025 [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a dual challenge of overcapacity and aggressive price wars, leading to compressed profit margins [11]. - The market is currently in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with the supply side undergoing significant reductions while demand growth remains uncertain [8][10]. - The recent rebound in polysilicon prices, which increased by over 50% from approximately 34,400 yuan/ton to 53,200 yuan/ton, has helped to narrow losses for Daqo New Energy [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the photovoltaic industry will continue to face overcapacity issues and price wars in 2025, with a potential restructuring of supply and demand expected in 2026 [11]. - The implementation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products may provide short-term support, but the actual demand impact remains limited [10]. - The rising costs of production due to high silver prices and polysilicon price increases are expected to continue pressuring the profitability of battery and module manufacturers [10][11].