央行大礼包来袭，长债利率为何上演“过山车”？

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the article revolves around the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) recent monetary policy adjustments, including a structural interest rate cut of 0.25 percentage points, signaling potential room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates throughout the year [3][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the PBOC's announcement, long-term bond yields initially dropped but then rebounded, indicating a lack of strong bullish sentiment in the market [4][5]. - The 10-year government bond yield fell from approximately 1.85% to 1.835% before rising again to 1.8555%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.2 basis points from the previous trading day [4]. - The 30-year government bond yield experienced similar fluctuations, initially dropping to 2.2915% before climbing to 2.3075%, closing at 2.3040%, which is an increase of 0.15 basis points [5]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The PBOC's announcement included a reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points and indicated that there is still room for further cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates [6][7]. - The average statutory deposit reserve ratio for financial institutions is currently at 6.3%, suggesting that there is still potential for reserve requirement reductions [6]. - The PBOC aims to lower banks' interest costs and stabilize net interest margins, which could create further space for interest rate cuts in 2026 [6]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has shown signs of recovery since mid-January, with yields on key bonds declining by 3.1 basis points and 1.2 basis points, respectively, since January 8 [6]. - The PBOC's operations in the bond market, including the buying and selling of government bonds, are intended to maintain liquidity and support the smooth issuance of government bonds [10][11]. - In 2025, the total issuance of government bonds reached 16 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 6.6 trillion yuan, indicating a robust supply in the bond market [10].