央行明确汇率导向：政策清晰一贯，无意靠贬值谋贸易优势

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate amidst increasing global financial market volatility in 2025, driven by factors such as monetary policy adjustments in developed economies and geopolitical disturbances [3]. Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB exchange rate faced depreciation pressure early in 2025 due to rising global tariff policy risks and the introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S., with the offshore RMB rate dropping below 7.40 [5]. - Following improvements in both internal and external environments, the RMB began a gradual appreciation, with both onshore and offshore RMB rates breaking the 7 mark against the USD by year-end, reaching new highs since May 2023 [6]. Influencing Factors - Various factors influence the exchange rate, including economic growth, monetary policy, financial markets, geopolitical events, and unexpected risks. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized the importance of managing expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [7]. - The RMB has shown resilience, with the CFETS RMB Index rising by 7.2% since 2020, despite a 1.9% increase in the USD index during the same period [7]. Future Outlook - The PBOC anticipates continued two-way fluctuations and elasticity in the RMB exchange rate, supported by China's large market size, complete industrial chain, and ongoing domestic demand potential [7]. - External uncertainties remain, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments in major economies and ongoing geopolitical shocks, which may impact exchange rate trends [7]. Cross-Border Capital Management - As international financial market volatility increases, there is a rising demand for enterprises to actively identify and manage exchange rate risks. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is enhancing services for enterprises in this regard [9]. - In 2025, the scale of enterprises using foreign exchange derivatives to manage exchange rate risks exceeded $1.9 trillion, nearly doubling since 2020, with a hedging ratio of 30%, up 8 percentage points from 2020 [9]. Financial Market Opening - SAFE is set to introduce policies to better support enterprises in their international operations and foreign trade development, including improvements in cross-border capital management for multinational companies [10]. - The next steps include optimizing Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) cross-border capital policies and continuing to issue Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) investment quotas to enhance the level of financial market openness [10].