光伏企业，正经历一场“白银劫”

Core Viewpoint - The surge in global silver prices is exerting additional pressure on solar panel manufacturers, who have already faced two years of losses, compounded by intense industry competition [1] Group 1: Silver Price Impact - Spot silver prices have soared to over $93 per ounce, a historical high, with prices more than tripling in the past year [1] - The cost of silver in solar panels now accounts for 29% of total panel costs, significantly up from 3.4% in 2023 and 14% last year [1] Group 2: Industry Response - Manufacturers are responding by raising prices and accelerating plans to replace silver with cheaper materials like copper [4] - In China, some component manufacturers have increased prices to over 0.8 yuan per watt, reflecting a price increase of 1.4%-3.8% from the previous week due to rising silver costs [4] - The typical price for a 500-watt solar panel is now at least 400 RMB (approximately $57) [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Major solar companies, including Trina Solar and JinkoSolar, have warned of expected net losses again in 2025, indicating that the industry's downturn has not improved significantly despite previous self-regulatory measures [5] - The average silver paste usage in solar panels is projected to drop to 8.96 mg per watt by 2025, down from 11.2 mg in 2024, as manufacturers seek to reduce costs [6] Group 4: Risks of Material Substitution - Engineers can use various methods to replace silver with cheaper copper, but rushing this process may pose risks for manufacturers [7] - Increasing the proportion of substitutes could lead to shorter lifespans for solar panels, potentially resulting in significant liabilities for manufacturers if panels fail before the warranty period [8] Group 5: Silver Demand and Future Consumption - The solar industry accounted for about 17% of total silver demand last year, more than double its share a decade ago, which is comparable to jewelry manufacturing [8] - A slowdown in consumption could threaten the sustainability of rising silver prices, which are currently driven by speculative interest and commodity rotation effects [8] - The current high silver prices may lead to more substitutions, but strong investment demand is expected to keep prices stable in the short term [8]