提前大选风险叠加日本央行决议在即，日元下一步拿了什么“剧本”？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of the Japanese yen due to the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting and the uncertainty surrounding the early election, highlighting concerns over potential government intervention to support the currency [3][4]. Group 1: Yen Volatility and Government Intervention - The Japanese yen has depreciated to its lowest level against the US dollar in 18 months, reaching 159.45, with the dollar trading around 158.60 [8]. - Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for early elections may strengthen her position and allow for increased government spending, contributing to yen depreciation [8]. - Analysts expect continued volatility in the yen, with potential intervention from Japanese authorities if the dollar-yen exchange rate approaches the 161-163 range [9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Hedge Fund Strategies - Hedge funds are betting on further yen depreciation, with call options on the dollar-yen pair significantly outpacing put options, indicating strong bullish sentiment [11]. - The market is closely monitoring the psychological level of 160, with expectations that substantial intervention may occur if the exchange rate approaches 165 [11][12]. - The divergence between the yen's performance and the Nikkei 225 index, which recently hit a record high, suggests a disconnect between Asian equity markets and currency movements [12][13].