鑫椤锂电一周观察 | 2025全球锂电池产量同比大增48.5%

Industry Highlights - Global lithium battery production is projected to reach 2297 GWh by 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.5%. Power batteries will contribute significantly, reaching 1495 GWh with a growth of 40.5%, while energy storage batteries will exceed 27% market share, growing to 636 GWh at a remarkable 92.7% increase [1] Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a tiered export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products, effective April 1, 2026, which includes a reduction of the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6%. This marks a critical transition for China's new energy industry from subsidy-driven to market-driven competition [2] Major Contracts - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) signed a procurement cooperation agreement with Rongbai Technology for lithium iron phosphate materials, with a total sales amount exceeding 120 billion yuan for 305,000 tons from Q1 2026 to 2031 [3] Production Capacity - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. has commenced operations at its ternary precursor project in Indonesia, with an annual production capacity expected to gradually increase to 20,000 tons [4] Market Trends - The domestic lithium carbonate market has experienced significant price fluctuations, with prices peaking at 170,000 yuan/ton, the highest in over two years. The market remains optimistic for Q1, despite being in a traditionally slow season, driven by export tax expectations and reduced supply due to maintenance at major lithium salt plants [6] Pricing Updates - As of January 15, 2023, battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 155,000 to 162,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade is between 141,000 to 147,000 yuan/ton. The prices for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate have also seen increases due to rising raw material costs [7][9] Battery Production - Battery manufacturers are operating at full capacity, with the export tax policy significantly impacting energy storage and overseas clients. However, production increases are limited due to existing capacity constraints [14] Electric Vehicle Market - In early January 2026, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 328,000 units, a 32% year-on-year decline, while new energy vehicle sales were 117,000 units, down 38% year-on-year. By 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales are expected to reach 16.626 million and 16.49 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year growth of 29% and 28.2% [15] Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage cell prices have risen, with most manufacturers increasing product prices. The market is currently in a stocking phase, with significant demand expected in the upcoming quarters [16]