大批车厘子涌入中国，有品种价格腰斩，跌破30元/斤

Core Viewpoint - The price of cherries in China has significantly decreased at the beginning of 2026, attributed to increased supply from Chile and improved logistics, transforming cherries from a luxury item to a more affordable fruit option for consumers [1][4][5]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The current situation mirrors past experiences with other premium fruits, such as the Sunshine Rose grape, which saw prices plummet due to oversupply and poor quality control [4]. - In early 2026, the retail price of J-grade cherries has dropped below 30 yuan per pound, compared to 50-60 yuan in previous years, making cherries more accessible to consumers [4]. - A surge in cherry supply from Chile, with over 22,000 tons shipped in late 2025, has intensified market pressure, leading to price declines [4][5]. Logistics and Transportation Advances - Improvements in logistics have accelerated the supply chain, reducing shipping times from 30-35 days to approximately 22 days through direct shipping routes [5]. - The introduction of dedicated air and sea transport routes has increased the volume of cherries arriving in China, contributing to the price drop [5]. Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The wholesale price of cherries has decreased by 15%-25% compared to the previous year, while retail prices have also seen a decline, indicating a shift in consumer perception towards cherries as a cost-effective choice [6]. - The cherry market is transitioning from a luxury item associated with social status to a more everyday fruit, reflecting changing consumer attitudes [6]. Supply Chain Challenges - Importers and retailers are facing challenges due to the reliance on prepayment mechanisms, which have become risky as prices fall and sales slow [9]. - Despite price pressures, the incentive for Chilean producers to expand cherry cultivation remains strong, with an increase in planting area reported [9]. Price Transmission and Competition - Price fluctuations are rapidly affecting the distribution and retail sectors, with some retailers experiencing daily changes in wholesale prices [10]. - E-commerce platforms are intensifying price competition, with some sellers offering cherries at significantly lower prices, further complicating the market dynamics [10]. Future Outlook - The future price trajectory of cherries will depend on post-holiday consumer demand and the pace of shipments arriving in the market [11].