大批车厘子涌入中国，有品种价格腰斩，跌破30元/斤

Core Viewpoint - The price of cherries in China has significantly decreased, transitioning from a luxury item to a more affordable fruit due to increased supply and improved logistics [2][7][10]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The current situation mirrors past experiences with other premium fruits, such as the Sunshine Rose grape, which saw prices plummet from 300 yuan per pound to 10 yuan for three pounds due to oversupply [5][6]. - The price of J-grade cherries has dropped below 30 yuan per pound in major cities, a significant decrease from the 50-60 yuan range in previous years [7]. - A surge in cherry supply from Chile, with over 22,000 tons shipped in late 2025 compared to 3,500 containers the previous year, has intensified market pressure [7][9]. - Logistics advancements have reduced shipping times from Chile to China, further contributing to the supply increase [8]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The cherry supply chain relies heavily on prepayment mechanisms, which have become risky as prices decline, leading to potential cash flow issues for importers [12]. - Despite price pressures, the planting area for cherries in Chile is expected to grow by 4.6% in the 2025-2026 season, indicating ongoing supply expansion [12]. - Price fluctuations are rapidly affecting distribution and retail, with some retailers experiencing daily changes in wholesale prices [13]. E-commerce and Retail Competition - E-commerce platforms are intensifying price competition, with some online stores offering cherries at significantly lower prices due to reduced operational costs [14]. - Issues with product grading on e-commerce platforms have created confusion and disrupted market pricing [14]. Future Outlook - The export forecast for Chilean cherries has been revised downwards, indicating a potential easing of oversupply pressures [15]. - Long-term growth in the Chinese cherry market is anticipated, supported by an expanding consumer base [16]. - The future price trajectory will depend on post-holiday demand and the pace of incoming shipments [17].