金银比14年来首度跌破50

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing unprecedented interest and price movements, driven by geopolitical tensions and changes in trade policies, leading to a significant decline in the gold-silver ratio for the first time in 14 years [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged, with the gold-silver ratio dropping below 50, indicating a strong market shift [1]. - The U.S. has classified silver as a critical mineral, while China has imposed stricter export controls, intensifying trade tensions [3]. - Investor interest in silver has increased significantly, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and diversification trends in investment portfolios [4]. Group 2: Trading Activity - Current trading activity in silver is 2.1 times its three-month average, surpassing both gold and cryptocurrencies in retail momentum and abnormal capital inflows [6]. - Retail investors have injected a record $921.8 million into silver-related ETFs over the past 30 days, marking the largest buying scale in history [8]. - The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) has seen an unprecedented 169 consecutive days of net inflows from retail investors, indicating a fundamental shift in asset allocation rather than mere opportunistic buying [8]. Group 3: Price Volatility and Future Outlook - Anticipation of potential U.S. tariffs on silver, possibly up to 50%, has led to liquidity pressures in the London market, amplifying price volatility [10]. - Goldman Sachs notes that while silver has shown strong performance, its volatility is higher than gold, which could lead to significant fluctuations in the gold-silver ratio [16]. - The structural advantages of gold remain, with expectations of continued central bank purchases, projected to average 70 tons per month by 2026, significantly higher than the 17 tons per month average in 2022 [14].