买涨人民币境外资本出现“分化”

Core Viewpoint - Multiple Wall Street hedge fund managers believe that a significant shock to the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could lead to a rapid decline in the US dollar, potentially bringing the RMB to USD exchange rate close to 6.60. However, large asset management firms on Wall Street are cautious about buying RMB [1][5]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Strategies - Zhang Gang, a multi-strategy hedge fund manager, increased the proportion of RMB assets in his emerging market currency portfolio from 10% to 25%, anticipating that the RMB will appreciate against the USD, targeting a rate of around 6.80 within the year, which could yield over 7% returns [2]. - A macro hedge fund trader, Yu Yong, has been increasing offshore RMB positions in a $200 million emerging market portfolio, believing that China's economic fundamentals and improved external trade environment will support RMB appreciation [7]. - Hedge funds are becoming increasingly active in the offshore RMB market, with some converting millions into offshore RMB to capitalize on potential appreciation [10]. Group 2: Large Asset Management Firms' Caution - Large asset management firms are taking a cautious approach to RMB investments, influenced by uncertainties regarding the sustainability of China's trade surplus and economic performance [5][12]. - These firms prioritize global asset allocation strategies and are not rushing to increase RMB assets, focusing instead on the performance of US stocks and the USD index [12][13]. - Despite some hedge fund managers expressing disappointment, large asset management firms view RMB appreciation as a secondary strategy, limiting individual investments to no more than 2% of total assets [12][13]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Predictions - Citigroup economists predict that the RMB will strengthen due to China's push for RMB internationalization and easing trade tensions, forecasting an exchange rate of 6.80 within the next 6 to 12 months [3]. - As of January 15, 2026, the one-year USD to RMB swap points indicate a market expectation of the RMB rising to approximately 6.8495, without breaking the 6.80 mark [8]. - The potential for a "black swan" event, such as unexpected Fed rate cuts, could lead to a significant appreciation of the RMB, with some hedge funds betting on a rate as low as 6.50 [9][10].