格隆汇APP·2026-01-17 11:23Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic (PV) module industry is experiencing an unexpected price surge at the beginning of 2026, driven by factors such as the impending cancellation of export tax rebates and rising costs of key materials like silver and aluminum, leading to significant profit compression in the industry [2][9][18]. Price Surge and Market Dynamics - Several PV module manufacturers have announced price increases, with some companies raising prices from 0.73 yuan/W to 0.8 yuan/W, and the official guidance price for distributed PV modules now ranges from 0.85 to 0.89 yuan/W [4][6]. - A total of 12 module manufacturers raised their prices this week, with increases ranging from 0.04 to 0.15 yuan/W [6][7]. - Reports indicate that some companies are delaying deliveries and demanding price hikes, causing significant disruptions for downstream companies [7][18]. Reasons for Price Increases - The cancellation of export tax rebates is a major catalyst for the price surge, with the Ministry of Finance announcing the phased removal of VAT export rebates for PV products starting April 1, 2026 [9][10]. - The price of silver has skyrocketed, increasing from 7,600 yuan/kg at the beginning of 2025 to 23,688 yuan/kg by the end of the year, resulting in a cost increase of at least 0.16 yuan per watt for PV cells [11][13]. - The cost share of silver in PV modules has risen from approximately 17% to around 30%, surpassing silicon as the largest cost component [13]. Industry Challenges and Overcapacity - The PV industry is facing severe overcapacity, with silicon production capacity expected to cover more than double the global demand from 2025 to 2027, while actual demand is below 600 GW [19][20]. - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to trigger a violent market clearing in 2026, as many companies will struggle with cash flow and rising costs [21][27]. - The industry is projected to experience significant losses, with estimates suggesting that the entire PV silicon industry could face losses amounting to hundreds of billions in 2025 [28][29]. Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The anticipated market clearing in 2026 is expected to eliminate over 30% of inefficient capacity, concentrating resources among leading companies with vertical integration and core technologies [31]. - Investors are advised to avoid high-debt, non-competitive small and medium enterprises, focusing instead on companies with stable cash flow, strong technology, and global presence [32].