A股冰火两重天！当宽基指数估值超过100倍，该如何选择？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the current high valuations of certain indices, warning that when broad market indices exceed a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 100, it signals potential market risks and unsustainable conditions [1][5]. Group 1: Market Valuation Insights - Recent indices such as the Sci-Tech 100, Sci-Tech 50, and CSI 2000 have P/E ratios exceeding 150, with the Sci-Tech 100 and Sci-Tech 50 at 217 and 172 respectively, indicating a significant increase in valuations [3][9]. - Historical data shows that when broad market indices like the Nikkei 225 and NASDAQ reached high P/E ratios (over 100), they subsequently experienced substantial declines, highlighting the risks of current market conditions [1][5]. - Despite the high valuations of certain indices, large-cap stocks in A-shares remain undervalued, with P/E ratios below 15 for major indices like the CSI 300 and SSE 50 [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Behavior - The article suggests a cautious investment approach, advocating for greed when valuations are low (below 10) and fear when they are high (above 100) [2]. - It is noted that 70% of the time, the stock market behaves rationally, with undervalued stocks rising and overvalued stocks falling, but there are periods of irrationality where the opposite occurs [5]. - The article warns that the current market's non-rational behavior is unlikely to last, as historically, high valuations have led to corrections [5][6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Valuations - Certain sectors exhibit extreme valuations, with some stocks in the aerospace and military sectors showing P/E ratios as high as 731.87, indicating a speculative bubble [8]. - The micro-cap stock index has seen a dramatic increase, with a rise of 3.1 times since February 2024, despite a significant portion of these stocks being unprofitable [3][9].