红杉合伙人：2026，AGI已经来了

Core Insights - The article posits that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has already arrived, characterized by the ability to "get things figured out" [3][4][8] - Long-horizon intelligent agents, exemplified by Claude Code, are seen as the first instances of this capability, with their abilities doubling approximately every seven months [4][24] Group 1: Definition and Examples of AGI - AGI is defined functionally as the ability to "get things figured out," rather than through a technical definition [14][12] - An example is provided where an intelligent agent autonomously identifies a suitable candidate for a developer relations position by navigating various platforms and signals, completing the task in 31 minutes [17][20] Group 2: Future Projections - The capabilities of long-horizon intelligent agents are projected to enable them to complete a human expert's daily work by 2028 and a year's worth of work by 2034 [4][24] - By 2037, these agents are expected to handle tasks equivalent to a century's worth of work, indicating exponential growth in their capabilities [24][29] Group 3: Implications for Businesses - The emergence of long-horizon intelligent agents will transform how businesses operate, shifting from using AI as mere conversational agents to employing them as active contributors in teams [26][27] - Companies will need to rethink how they package and sell work outputs, as the capabilities of these agents will unlock new potentials in various fields [28][30]