核心城市增长乏力，递表前夕突击大额分红，中国最大餐酒吧IPO成色几何？

Core Viewpoint - COMMUNE, the largest restaurant and bar brand in China, is preparing for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to become the first publicly listed restaurant and bar company in the market [2][3]. Group 1: Business Model and Competitive Advantage - COMMUNE has maintained its position as the top brand in China's restaurant and bar sector for three consecutive years, with a market share of 7.8% in 2024, which is double that of its second and third competitors combined [5]. - The company's core competitive advantages are derived from its all-day operational model, high-margin beverage sales, and proprietary brand offerings [5][6]. - The all-day operational model allows COMMUNE to serve a diverse customer base throughout the day, effectively increasing store utilization and reducing fixed costs [6][7]. - As of September 30, 2025, COMMUNE operates 112 stores across 40 cities, with a significant presence in first and second-tier cities [7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of RMB 8.45 billion, RMB 10.74 billion, and RMB 8.72 billion for the years 2023, 2024, and the first three quarters of 2025, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 734.49 million, RMB 661.86 million, and RMB 786.33 million [10]. - The overall gross margin has remained above 65%, with a peak of 70.5% in 2023, although it slightly declined to 67.8% in 2024 before recovering to 68.7% in 2025 [10][12]. - However, same-store sales growth has shown signs of decline, particularly in first-tier cities, where the growth rate was -1.1% in 2024 and further decreased to -1.4% in the first three quarters of 2025 [13][15]. Group 3: Market Challenges - The decline in same-store sales in first-tier cities is attributed to increased competition and market saturation, with consumers showing less interest in social dining experiences [17]. - The company plans to shift its expansion focus to lower-tier markets, aiming to open 150 to 190 new stores from 2026 to 2029, but faces challenges in balancing brand positioning with price sensitivity in these markets [19]. - The liquidity position is concerning, with a current ratio of 0.7, indicating that current assets are insufficient to cover current liabilities, leading to potential short-term repayment pressures [21][23]. Group 4: Shareholder Dynamics - Prior to the IPO, the company distributed a special dividend of RMB 80 million, raising questions about the rationale behind this decision given its tight cash flow situation [25]. - The exit of early investor Tomato Capital, which sold its stake around the same time as the dividend distribution, has led to speculation about the motivations behind the dividend [26].