算力芯片“吃尽”铜坨铝锭，有色金属行情走到哪一步了？

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical commodities industry is at a turning point, with significant price increases expected in 2026 due to supply constraints and global demand recovery after a three-year inventory destocking phase [3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The global metal futures market has seen a strong start in 2026, with LME copper prices reaching historical highs and LME tin hitting $54,760 per ton, reflecting an over 18% increase year-to-date [3][5]. - The supply-side dynamics for copper, aluminum, and lithium are entering a "tight supply" phase, with projected supply-demand gaps for 2026 of 670,000 tons for copper, 990,000 tons for aluminum, and 120,000 tons for lithium [5][6]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - AI is expected to significantly increase copper demand through upgrades in old power grids and new data centers, with estimates suggesting a compound annual growth rate of 0.7% for AI-related copper demand from 2026 to 2030, resulting in a cumulative increase of 3.8% [7]. - Traditional infrastructure, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and data center construction are also contributing to increased demand for copper and aluminum [8]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The aluminum market is expected to shift from surplus to a 34% shortage by 2025, influenced by production constraints in domestic and international markets [6]. - The lithium market is anticipated to face a sharp reduction in new production capacity starting in 2026, leading to increased scarcity post-2028 [6]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The resource allocation logic is being rewritten, with expectations of a prolonged boom cycle for resource commodities due to structural demand increases and supply constraints [6][8]. - Despite the positive outlook, there are warnings about potential short-term volatility in industrial metals, with forecasts suggesting that copper prices above $13,000 per ton may not be sustainable in the long term [8].