11家车企今年销量目标总和猛增19%

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is setting ambitious sales targets for 2026, with a total of 11 major companies aiming for 23.8 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 19% compared to 20 million units in 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Targets of Major Companies - Major companies have set aggressive sales targets for 2026, with a total of 2,380,240 units aimed, which is an 18.96% increase from the 2,000,904 units sold in 2025 [3]. - Great Wall Motors has the most ambitious target, aiming for 1.8 million units, a nearly 36% increase from 1.32 million units in 2025 [5]. - Dongfeng plans to increase its target from 250,000 units in 2025 to 325,000 units in 2026, representing a growth of over 30% [5]. - Changan aims for 3.3 million units, a 13.3% increase, while Chery targets 3.2 million units, a 14.03% increase [5]. - BYD, SAIC, GAC, and Li Auto have not disclosed their targets, but collectively sold 1.167 million units in 2025, indicating potential for significant contributions to the overall market [1]. Group 2: Conservative Institutional Predictions - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) forecasts total automotive sales in 2026 to be around 34.75 million units, reflecting only a 1% year-on-year growth [2][8]. - UBS predicts a slight decline in wholesale sales, while retail sales may see a mid-single-digit drop [2][8]. - Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan forecast a decline of 3% to 5% in total automotive sales for 2026 [8]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Growth - New energy vehicle sales targets are significantly higher than overall sales growth targets, with companies like Geely aiming for a 32% increase in new energy vehicle sales [8]. - The focus on new energy vehicles is seen as a key growth driver for the automotive market, with companies adjusting their strategies accordingly [8]. Group 4: Global Market Challenges - Global electric vehicle sales are expected to grow by 20% to 20.7 million units in 2025, but growth is projected to slow to 15.7% in 2026, with North America facing a significant decline of 23% [9]. - Factors such as changing policies and increased competition in Europe are contributing to a cooling global electric vehicle market [9]. Group 5: Industry Consolidation - The automotive market is expected to see a clearer division between leading, mid-tier, and numerous smaller companies, with a need for consolidation due to increased competition and market saturation [11]. - Only about 10% of Chinese electric vehicle brands are predicted to be profitable in the next five years, leading to the exit of brands with low sales volumes [11].