日本央行下次加息可能在6～7月？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impact of Japan's political environment on the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decisions, particularly in light of the upcoming House of Representatives election and the implications of a possible dissolution of the House in January 2025 [2][4]. Group 1: Political Environment and BOJ Actions - The BOJ typically avoids taking action before national elections to maintain its independence and avoid political interpretations of its policies [4][5]. - The decision to dissolve the House of Representatives in January 2025 could create a favorable environment for the BOJ to raise interest rates in June or July, as it would eliminate concerns about overlapping election schedules [5][7]. - Historical patterns indicate that the BOJ has never changed its policy right before a House election since the current Bank of Japan Act was implemented in 1998 [4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Predictions - The likelihood of an interest rate hike in June or July 2025 is supported by the expected outcomes of spring labor negotiations, which will clarify wage increases [5]. - Market predictions suggest a 28% probability for a rate hike in June and a 30% probability in July, totaling nearly 60% [5]. - There is a possibility that the BOJ may need to raise rates earlier if the yen depreciates significantly due to political factors, particularly if inflationary pressures increase [7]. Group 3: Historical Context - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the past, specifically referencing the January 1990 dissolution of the House and subsequent interest rate hikes by the BOJ [8][9]. - In 1990, the BOJ raised rates in March following a similar political scenario, suggesting that the current environment may allow for similar actions post-election [9].