IMF上调中美经济增速预期，罕见预警AI投资热

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the global economy amid conflicting factors such as U.S. tariff policies and the AI investment wave, with the IMF projecting stable growth rates for the next two years [1][3]. Economic Growth Projections - The IMF forecasts global economic growth at 3.3% for 2024 and 3.2% for 2025, with adjustments of +0.2% and 0% respectively from previous estimates [1][2]. - The U.S. is projected to grow at 2.4% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025, with changes of +0.3% and -0.1% [1][2]. - China's growth is expected at 4.5% for 2024 and 4.0% for 2025, with increases of +0.3% and decreases of -0.2% [1][2]. Factors Influencing Economic Performance - The strong economic performance is attributed to various factors, including easing trade tensions, fiscal stimulus, a loose financial environment, and robust private sector responses to trade disruptions [3]. - A significant driver of growth is the surge in investments in information technology, particularly in AI, which has reached its highest level since 2001 in the U.S. [3]. Emerging Markets and Developing Economies - Emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow at 4.2% and 4.1% in the next two years [5]. - India is projected to maintain a growth rate of 6.4% for both years, while the Middle East and Central Asia are expected to grow at 3.9% and 4.0% [5]. Trade and Inflation Outlook - Global trade volume growth is anticipated to decline from 4.1% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, with inflation expected to decrease to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 [5]. - The U.S. inflation rate is expected to decline more slowly than in other economies, while the Eurozone inflation is projected to hover around 2% [5]. AI Investment Risks - The article highlights concerns regarding the potential bubble in AI investments, with warnings from the IMF about possible market corrections if productivity expectations are reassessed [7][8]. - The current tech investment boom presents both upside and downside risks for the global economy, with potential impacts on consumption and wealth distribution [8]. Central Bank Policies - The article notes that major central banks are expected to adopt divergent monetary policies in 2026, with the U.S. and U.K. likely to lower interest rates while the Eurozone may maintain its rates [10][11]. - The IMF suggests that the independence of central banks is crucial for maintaining monetary and financial stability [11].