光伏出口退税再调，倒逼产业加速转型

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to increase export costs in the short term, causing price disturbances. However, in the long run, it aims to shift the photovoltaic industry from a quantity-driven model to a quality-driven one, promoting a more sustainable and higher-value development path for the industry [2][3]. Policy Adjustment - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for certain products, including photovoltaic products, effective April 1, 2026. This marks the second significant adjustment to the export tax rebate policy within a year, drawing considerable attention from the industry [3][5]. - The products affected primarily include monocrystalline silicon wafers with a diameter greater than 15.24 cm, unassembled solar cells, and photovoltaic modules, which are commonly traded in the market [5]. Market Response - The cancellation of approximately 9% export tax rebate is projected to increase the cost of photovoltaic products by 0.06 to 0.07 yuan per watt. To maintain reasonable profit levels, export prices would need to rise above 0.8 yuan per watt, impacting the pricing structure and profitability of companies [6]. - A transition period of about three months has been set, leading to expectations of a surge in exports before the new policy takes effect. Analysts predict a potential doubling of battery component exports in the first quarter of 2026 as companies rush to fulfill orders [8][9]. Industry Dynamics - The adjustment is seen as a response to the ongoing trend of increasing export volumes but decreasing prices, with the total export value of photovoltaic products declining by 13.2% year-on-year despite volume growth [9]. - The policy aims to guide the industry away from low-price competition and homogenization, pushing for a transition to high-quality development. This is crucial as the industry faces intense competition and declining prices in international markets [11]. Long-term Implications - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to accelerate industry differentiation, benefiting leading companies with pricing power while forcing low-margin firms reliant on subsidies to exit the market [12]. - The industry is encouraged to focus on technological innovation, product differentiation, and brand value rather than competing solely on price, which could lead to more sustainable growth and reduced trade friction [12].