阿尔法工场研究院·2026-01-20 00:08Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is shifting from reliance on NVIDIA's chips to self-developed solutions, as companies like Xiaopeng and NIO are moving towards their own chip development to reduce costs and enhance performance [2][5][20]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Xiaopeng has released four new models equipped with its self-developed Turing driving chip, marking a complete departure from NVIDIA's chips [2]. - NIO is transitioning to its self-developed Shenqi chip, which is expected to significantly reduce costs compared to purchasing NVIDIA chips [2][8]. - NVIDIA's market share in China's high-end driving chip sector is projected to decline from 39% in 2024 to 25% in 2025, indicating a significant shift in the competitive landscape [2][9]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - In 2024, NVIDIA's Orin-X chip held a 39.8% market share with 2.1 million units, but competitors like Horizon are gaining ground with lower-cost alternatives [5][6]. - Horizon's J5 chip has secured contracts with over nine automakers, including major brands like BYD and SAIC, highlighting the increasing competition in the market [6][9]. - By 2025, NVIDIA's partnerships with major clients like NIO and Xiaopeng have diminished, indicating a loss of influence in the market [6][8]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, NVIDIA reported $147.8 billion in total revenue, with only $1.7 billion (approximately 1%) coming from automotive business, underscoring the limited impact of automotive sales on overall performance [14][16]. - The automotive segment's revenue is significantly overshadowed by NVIDIA's data center business, which accounts for nearly 90% of its income [14][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - NVIDIA is attempting to pivot from being a chip supplier to a comprehensive smart driving solution provider, but this transition faces challenges as competitors strengthen their positions [20]. - The launch of NVIDIA's open-source VLA model, aimed at assisting automakers lacking full-stack development capabilities, reflects its strategy to maintain relevance in the evolving market [20][21]. - However, the practical utility of the VLA model has been questioned, indicating potential hurdles in its adoption and effectiveness [21].