国常会密集部署，财政促消费资金有望增至5000亿

Core Viewpoint - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China exceeded 50 trillion yuan in 2025, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a strong position in the global retail market [1] Group 1: Consumption Trends - Basic living and some upgraded goods showed good sales momentum, with retail sales of communication equipment, cultural office supplies, sports and entertainment products, home appliances, and food items growing by 20.9%, 17.3%, 15.7%, 11.0%, and 9.3% respectively [1] - Rural retail sales grew by 4.1%, outpacing urban growth by 0.5 percentage points, highlighting the potential of rural markets [4] - Service retail sales increased by 5.5% year-on-year, indicating significant growth potential in the service sector [1][4] Group 2: Policy and Market Support - The State Council's meetings on January 9 and 16 focused on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, emphasizing the importance of consumption for economic growth [1][2] - Policies aimed at stimulating consumption include optimizing service industry loans and supporting new business models and scenarios [4][9] - The implementation of paid leave and the construction of a unified national market are expected to enhance the consumption environment [2][13] Group 3: Downstream Market Potential - The consumption in lower-tier markets is characterized by a large population base, high marginal potential, and rapid structural upgrades [5][6] - The county-level commercial system is improving, with the county and rural market accounting for 38.7% of total retail sales [4] - Policies to stimulate consumption in lower-tier markets are being introduced, including financial support for county-level consumption activities [4] Group 4: Service Consumption as a New Engine - Service consumption is increasingly becoming a key driver of growth, with service retail sales growing faster than goods retail sales [8][12] - The proportion of service consumption in per capita spending reached 46.1% in 2025, reflecting a shift towards service-oriented consumption [8] - Various sectors such as tourism, cultural activities, and entertainment are experiencing significant growth, with some areas seeing over 20% growth in retail sales [8][10] Group 5: Upgrading Consumption Patterns - The implementation of the "old for new" consumption policy is expected to boost the sales of high-quality durable goods, with significant growth in categories like cultural office supplies and home appliances [11] - The demand for quality and experiential products is rising, while basic consumer goods remain stable, indicating a dual focus on upgrading and essential needs [11] - The government's fiscal policies, including subsidies and tax incentives, are effectively stimulating mid-to-high-end consumption [11][12] Group 6: Future Outlook - The retail sales growth rate is projected to accelerate to around 5.0% in 2026, with service retail sales expected to grow by 6.5% [14] - Continued implementation of consumption-boosting policies and improvements in the consumption environment are anticipated to support stable growth [13][14] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth is expected to remain strong, reaching 52% in 2025 [13]