日本国债，30年来首度迈入“4时代”

Core Viewpoint - Japan's 40-year government bond yield has historically surpassed 4%, marking the highest level since its issuance in 2007, indicating a significant shift in the Japanese bond market after decades of ultra-low interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds rose by 5.5 basis points, reaching a level not seen since December 1995 for 20-year bonds [1]. - The 30-year bond yield in Japan (approximately 3.6%) has now exceeded that of Germany's equivalent bonds (approximately 3.5%) [1]. - The bond market is experiencing accelerated sell-offs, with concerns that the government's plan to reduce the food consumption tax could widen the fiscal gap [2]. Group 2: Political and Economic Context - Prime Minister Sanna Takashi confirmed the dissolution of the House of Representatives and an early election on February 8, with promises of a temporary reduction in the food consumption tax from 8% to 0% if his new coalition wins [2]. - The "Center Reform Coalition," formed by the largest opposition party and a former ruling coalition partner, is also planning to manage a new government fund to finance the proposed tax reduction [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Investors are cautious ahead of the upcoming 20-year Japanese government bond auction, which is seen as a critical test for the bond market amid rising yields and fiscal concerns [2]. - The 20-year bond yield reached 3.265%, the highest since 1999, indicating potential volatility in the bond market leading up to the election results [2][3]. - Attention is also on the Bank of Japan's upcoming monetary policy meeting, where officials are increasingly considering the impact of the yen on inflation, although a rate hike is unlikely at this meeting [3].