12月一线城市新房成交量大涨

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is still adjusting as of 2025, but positive factors are accumulating, indicating potential recovery in 2026 [1][8]. Price Trends - In December 2025, new and second-hand home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% and 0.9% month-on-month, respectively, with the decline narrowing compared to the previous month [3][4]. - Shanghai showed relatively better performance, with new home prices rising by 0.2% in December 2025, making it the only first-tier city with an increase [4]. Sales Performance - The sales area of newly built commercial housing in 2025 was 88,101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while sales revenue was 83,937 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6% [7]. - Despite the negative growth, the decline in sales metrics was less severe than in 2024, indicating some stabilization in market demand [7]. Market Inventory - By the end of 2025, the total unsold housing inventory was 76,632 million square meters, an increase of 1.6% year-on-year, but the growth rate had slowed compared to previous years [7]. - The reduction in inventory is attributed to both proactive de-inventory measures and market self-balancing, which helps stabilize market expectations and confidence [7]. Policy Signals - As of 2026, clear "stabilizing expectations" signals have been released, including policies like extending housing tax rebates and lowering down payment ratios for commercial properties [1][8]. - The emphasis on managing market expectations is crucial for stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on maintaining policy strength to avoid market-policy conflicts [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the effects of various favorable policies will further materialize in 2026, leading to positive adjustments in real estate indicators [8]. - The real estate market is anticipated to gradually stabilize and transition towards high-quality development in the mid to late stages of the 14th Five-Year Plan [8].