LPR连续八个月“按兵不动”

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for eight consecutive months, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the lack of adjustment momentum, as the central bank's policy rate, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, has remained stable [2]. - The low net interest margin for banks has resulted in a lack of incentive for banks to lower the LPR quote [2]. - The LPR serves as a key reference for loan pricing, with expectations that the average interest rates for new corporate and personal housing loans will remain around 3.1% until December 2025 [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank plans to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy, utilizing various tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [3]. - Market institutions believe there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions this year, although the necessity for immediate action is low [3]. - Recent monetary policies include a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the rate of structural monetary policy tools, indicating a reduced need for immediate interest rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Economic Forecast - A survey conducted by Securities Times indicates that nearly 59% of economists expect the next RRR cut or interest rate reduction to occur between the Lunar New Year and the end of the first quarter [4].