资金远离日本国债，10年后付息利率增至3倍

Core Viewpoint - Japan's long-term interest rates are rising, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 2.27%, leading to concerns about the sustainability of government finances as the cost of servicing debt increases [2][4][5]. Group 1: Government Debt and Interest Rates - The average interest rate on government bonds for the fiscal year 2024 is projected to be 0.75%, but as low-rate bonds mature, new bonds will be issued at market rates, which are expected to be around 2% [2][5]. - Estimates suggest that by 2026, the average interest rate on government debt will exceed 1%, reaching 1.65% by 2030 and 2.16% by 2035, nearly three times the 2024 level [5]. - The Ministry of Finance is cautious about rising interest payments, predicting that by 2028, interest expenses will double from 7.9 trillion yen in 2024 to 16.1 trillion yen [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The rising interest rates could lead to a deterioration in the ratio of government debt to nominal GDP, which was previously as high as 258% in 2020 [8]. - The nominal GDP is expected to grow at a rate of 2.4% to 2.7% from 2027 to 2035, but if long-term interest rates remain around 2.5%, the gap between nominal growth and government bond rates will narrow [8]. - The current environment of competing tax cuts among political parties may hinder the return of funds to Japanese government bonds, maintaining pressure on fiscal sustainability [8].