碳酸锂行情日报：寒气逆极，一阳复生

Market Overview - On January 20, the spot settlement price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 153,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 3,000 CNY from the previous working day, with increased spot transactions [1] - The settlement price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) was 142,000 CNY/ton, up 4,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - In the futures market, due to rumors of potential production halts at some mines in Jiangxi, lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main contract closing at 160,500 CNY/ton, an increase of 13,240 CNY from the previous working day, and an increase in open interest [1] Price Trends - The ICC lithium battery settlement prices on January 19 and January 20 showed the following changes: - Lithium concentrate remained at 2,030 CNY/ton - Battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 15.05 to 15.35 CNY/kg - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide increased from 13.8 to 14.2 CNY/kg - Lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased from 5.23 to 5.28 CNY/kg - Ternary materials remained at 19.7 CNY/kg - Square power battery cells remained at 0.335 CNY/Wh [2] Industry Insights - Current average price levels for lithium iron phosphate battery cells suggest that the terminal (mainly second-tier companies) can bear lithium carbonate prices around 156,000 CNY [4] - The lithium market is experiencing significant fluctuations primarily due to rumors of production halts in Jiangxi, although production remains normal for lithium salt manufacturers in the region [6] - The overall fundamentals of the lithium battery market remain strong, with even cost-sensitive sectors like energy storage able to accept current lithium prices, indicating a continuation of wide fluctuations in the short term [6] Import and Export Data - In December, China imported 23,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a month-on-month increase of 9%, with a cumulative import forecast of 243,000 tons for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [9] - In December, the shipment volume of lithium concentrate from the Hedland port in Australia was 168,500 tons, an increase of 8.99% from November, all shipped to China [9]