China National Gold (SH:600916) 第一财经·2026-01-20 11:23Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in gold prices over the past year, which has led to a rise in domestic gold and jewelry retail sales, despite a decline in actual consumer demand for gold products [3][18]. Group 1: Gold Price and Retail Sales - International gold prices surged over 60% in the past year, with domestic gold prices reaching new highs, contributing to a 12.8% increase in retail sales of gold and jewelry, amounting to 373.6 billion yuan in 2025 [3][5]. - The overall retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025 were 45,136 billion yuan, showing a modest growth of 0.9% year-on-year, while retail sales excluding automobiles grew by 1.7% [5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Despite the increase in gold prices, consumer demand for gold jewelry has weakened, with a 7.95% year-on-year decline in gold consumption, and a 32.5% drop in gold jewelry consumption in the first three quarters of 2025 [7][8]. - Retailers are experiencing pressure, as evidenced by major companies like Chow Tai Fook reporting a 1.1% decline in revenue for the first half of the fiscal year 2026, while another company, Mengjin Garden, reported a net loss despite a revenue increase [9][10]. Group 3: Market Polarization - The gold retail market is showing signs of polarization, with traditional brands struggling while high-end brands like Lao Pu Gold are thriving, attracting younger consumers willing to pay a premium for unique and emotional products [12][15]. - Lao Pu Gold has seen significant demand, with reports of long queues at their stores during peak shopping periods, and projections of a 224% increase in net profit for 2025 [13][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The World Gold Council predicts that gold prices could rise by 15% to 30% in 2026, with optimistic forecasts suggesting prices may exceed $5,100 per ounce by the end of 2026 [18].