君乐宝走向全国：低温液态奶更刚需了

Core Viewpoint - Junlebao has achieved counter-cyclical growth amidst industry fluctuations, with significant revenue and profit increases, driven by integrated operations and a focus on low-temperature liquid dairy products [1][2]. Financial Performance - Junlebao's total revenue increased from 17.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 19.8 billion yuan in 2024, reaching 15.1 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025 [1]. - Adjusted net profit rose from 600 million yuan in 2023 to 1.16 billion yuan in 2024, and 940 million yuan in the first nine months of 2025, with adjusted net profit margin improving from 3.4% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and further to 6.2% in 2025 [1]. Market Position - According to Frost & Sullivan, Junlebao ranks third among comprehensive dairy companies in China by retail revenue in 2024 [2]. - The low-temperature liquid milk segment has become a significant growth driver for Junlebao's national expansion [2]. Industry Challenges - The dairy market is currently facing challenges, with a 16.8% year-on-year decline in total sales across all channels as of September 2025, and offline channel growth down by 21.3% [3]. - The overall market growth rate for liquid dairy products from 2019 to 2024 is only 1.7%, indicating a significant slowdown compared to previous years [3]. Growth Opportunities - The low-temperature liquid dairy product market shows strong resilience, with a market size projected to grow from 77.4 billion yuan in 2019 to 89.7 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.0% [4]. - The fresh milk market is expected to grow from 24.2 billion yuan in 2019 to 36.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% [4]. Consumer Trends - High-end fresh milk is becoming a core growth segment, with the high-end fresh milk market size increasing from 5.9 billion yuan in 2019 to 13.3 billion yuan in 2024, and projected to reach 28.4 billion yuan by 2029 [4]. - The low-temperature yogurt market has shown some volatility but remains resilient, with a market size projected to be 52.8 billion yuan in 2024 [5]. Distribution and Market Penetration - Junlebao's sales network covers all 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China, penetrating approximately 2,200 counties, which is about 77% of the total county-level administrative regions [1]. - The company has established a comprehensive sales network, reaching around 400,000 retail terminals for low-temperature liquid milk and 70,000 for formula milk [12]. Strategic Initiatives - Junlebao is expanding its market presence through acquisitions of regional brands and has successfully entered markets in Hong Kong and Macau, with plans to expand into Southeast Asia [11]. - The company aims to use funds from its Hong Kong IPO for factory construction, capacity expansion, brand marketing, and further R&D innovation [12].