第一财经·2026-01-20 14:12Core Viewpoint - The company Zhaoyan New Drug (603127.SH, 06127.HK) is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 233 million to 349 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 214.0% to 371.0% despite a projected revenue decline of 13.9% to 22.1% [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Zhaoyan New Drug anticipates a revenue of 1.573 billion to 1.738 billion yuan for 2025, which reflects a year-on-year decrease [3]. - The significant increase in net profit is primarily attributed to changes in the fair value of biological assets rather than revenue growth [3][4]. - The rise in fair value is driven by an increase in market prices of biological assets and natural growth, contributing positively to the company's performance [3]. Group 2: Biological Assets - The biological assets referred to by Zhaoyan New Drug mainly consist of experimental monkeys, which are crucial for preclinical evaluations of drugs [4]. - Over 70% of large molecule drugs require monkeys for preclinical trials, and approximately 20%-30% of small molecule chemical drugs also utilize them [4]. - The price of experimental monkeys is closely linked to the innovation and development of new drugs, with prices having fluctuated significantly in recent years [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for experimental monkeys surged, leading to prices exceeding 200,000 yuan per monkey in 2022, but prices fell below 100,000 yuan in 2023 due to reduced R&D spending by pharmaceutical companies [5]. - As the pharmaceutical capital market recovers and domestic innovative drugs gain traction, the price of experimental monkeys is expected to rise again, surpassing 100,000 yuan each in 2025 [5][6]. - The current market conditions indicate a supply-demand imbalance for experimental monkeys, with prices for 3-5 year old monkeys reaching 140,000 yuan each, reflecting a recovery in the domestic innovative drug development landscape [6].