专访大摩徐然：全面降息弊大于利，2026年中国金融体系将逐步回归正循环

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that comprehensive interest rate cuts are more harmful than beneficial and should not be seen as a panacea for stimulating the economy [2][4]. Monetary Policy and Structural Adjustments - On January 15, the People's Bank of China announced a policy package with eight measures focused on structural monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts and increased quotas to support key areas like private small and micro enterprises and technological innovation [2][3]. - Xu Ran believes that the implementation of structural interest rate cuts indicates that broad monetary policy will not arrive soon, as financial products rely on layered interest rate risks, and lowering rates will not stimulate consumption and credit [2][4]. Credit Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, the total social financing stock is projected to reach 442.12 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, and over 50% of new financing will come from non-loan sources like bonds [7]. - Xu Ran points out that the key to driving credit demand lies in addressing existing stock issues rather than merely pursuing incremental growth, indicating a shift towards higher quality credit [7]. Deposit Trends - In 2025, non-bank financial institutions' RMB deposits increased by 6.41 trillion yuan, a significant rise of 147% year-on-year, while household deposits grew by 14.64 trillion yuan, only 3% more than the previous year [8]. - Xu Ran argues that the notion of "deposit migration" is inaccurate, as the overall deposit growth rate remains high at 8.7%, reflecting a diversification in residents' financial asset allocation rather than a reduction in deposits [8]. Future Outlook for Financial Sector - Xu Ran anticipates that by 2026, the financial system will gradually return to a positive cycle, supported by multiple favorable factors, including adjustments in interest rate pricing mechanisms and a rebound in net interest margins [9][10]. - The banking sector's net interest margin is expected to stabilize and begin to rebound in the second half of 2026, contributing to a substantial increase in bank revenues [11].