供应扰动再发酵，碳酸锂尾盘涨停！高波动行情或仍将延续

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market has experienced a significant rebound, with the main contract reaching a limit-up of 8.99% on January 20, driven by supply concerns and improved supply-demand dynamics compared to previous periods [1][2]. Supply Concerns - Supply worries have resurfaced, leading to a sharp increase in lithium carbonate prices, with the main contract closing at 160,500 yuan/ton and a daily increase of 4,020 contracts, bringing total open interest to 415,400 contracts [2]. - The mining projects of Jiangxi's Ganxian and Guoxuan Electronic are facing potential production halts due to ongoing environmental assessments and permit applications, raising market concerns about supply disruptions [2][3]. - The tightening of supply is further exacerbated by the publication of the "Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Action Plan," which emphasizes tailings management as a critical focus for lithium production [2]. Market Dynamics - The current supply-demand structure for lithium carbonate has shown significant improvement, with January exhibiting "not a dull season" characteristics due to strong export demand, resulting in a decrease of 263 tons in inventory [4]. - Positive signals from the overseas electric vehicle market, such as Canada granting quotas for Chinese electric vehicles and Germany planning to resume electric vehicle subsidies, are contributing to a healthier demand structure [4]. - The recent price adjustments have led to increased purchasing activity from downstream enterprises, with a notable daily transaction volume of 7,480 tons, indicating effective support for price levels [4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The core market contradiction lies in locked inventories and limited available spot supplies, with traders holding back stock, while short positions remain rigid [5]. - There is potential for further price increases driven by news stimuli, but the current high valuation of lithium prices suggests a volatile market environment [5]. - The market has entered a high-volatility phase, making short-term trend trading more challenging, and industry clients are advised to focus on hedging strategies and position management [5].