13个精算师·2026-01-20 15:43Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and prospects of exclusive commercial pension insurance products, highlighting their competitive settlement rates and the growing demand for stable, long-term investment options in the current market environment [1][6][8]. Summary by Sections Exclusive Commercial Pension Insurance - In 2025, 80% of exclusive commercial pension insurance accounts are expected to have settlement rates exceeding 3%, with 95% of accounts surpassing 2.75% [1][8]. - Six products from Agricultural Bank Life and National Pension have settlement rates exceeding 4% [9][10]. - The average settlement rate for 80 accounts in 2025 is projected to be 3.3%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year [16][20]. Product Performance - The average settlement rate for exclusive commercial pension insurance has consistently been above 3% since 2021, with the first batch of products achieving an average of 4% over five years [13][17]. - The top six products with the highest settlement rates in 2025 include various offerings from Agricultural Bank Life and National Pension, all exceeding 4% [11][14]. Market Trends - The demand for long-term, stable, and higher-yielding products has surged due to external interest rate declines and the upcoming maturity of large deposits, estimated to be around 50 trillion yuan [6][8]. - The insurance industry is actively promoting the development of dividend insurance and "guaranteed + floating yield" products to enhance competitiveness and improve liability quality [6][8]. Consumer Insights - Exclusive commercial pension insurance products offer several advantages, including flexible investment options, guaranteed minimum returns, and tax benefits for personal pension contributions [24][27]. - The products feature both conservative and aggressive account types, allowing consumers to switch between them during the contract period [27][30].