Canalys·2026-01-21 01:02Core Insights - The Indian smartphone market is expected to see a year-on-year decline of 7% in Q4 2025, with shipments dropping to 34.5 million units, influenced by high channel inventory, currency depreciation, and rising storage costs affecting purchasing power in the mid-to-low-end market [2][11] - Vivo maintained its leading position in Q4 2025 with shipments of 7.9 million units, capturing a market share of 23%, followed by Samsung with 4.9 million units (14% share) and OPPO with 4.6 million units (13% share) [2][11] - The overall smartphone shipments for India in 2025 are projected to be 154.2 million units, reflecting a mild decline of 1% year-on-year, indicating a trend towards a more mature market [2][12] Market Dynamics - Brands are adjusting their Minimum Official Prices (MOP) to cope with rising component costs, particularly in price-sensitive models, leading to a cautious approach from retailers and a slowdown in shipments from November [5][8] - Vivo and OPPO are the only brands to achieve double-digit year-on-year growth, showcasing their strong retail execution and ability to attract consumer demand [5][8] - Samsung's shipments have slowed despite maintaining a value-driven strategy through selective upgrades and cashback offers, while Xiaomi's volume has declined, relying heavily on entry-level models [8][10] Future Outlook - The Indian smartphone market is expected to experience a slight decline in 2026, driven by high prices and limited upgrade opportunities, with a shift towards value-driven growth strategies among Chinese brands focusing on the ₹25,000–₹60,000 price segment [10] - Brands will increasingly rely on channel leverage, including service bundling, financing options, and trade-in programs, as hardware differentiation becomes limited due to rising storage costs [10] - Retail execution capabilities, including promotional strength and localized sales strategies, will be crucial for maintaining market stability amid cautious consumer demand [10]