印度股市持续“不温不火”

Core Viewpoint - The Indian SENSEX index is underperforming compared to other markets, with a projected increase of only 9% in 2025, while the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise by approximately 18% and the Korean Composite Index by 75% [2][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The SENSEX index has shown weakness entering January 2026, hovering around the 25-day moving average since December 2025, with a significant net sell-off by foreign investors amounting to ₹1.6628 trillion (approximately ¥127.186 billion) in 2025 [4]. - As of January 13, 2026, the net sell-off reached ₹185.8 billion, indicating continued outflows from the Indian stock market [4]. - The SENSEX index increased by 9% in 2025, but this is lower than the approximately 13% rise of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and about 17% of the S&P 500 [7]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Indian economy remains robust, with a projected GDP growth of 7.4% for the fiscal year 2025, and a significant 8.2% growth in GDP for the July-September 2025 quarter, exceeding expectations [4][5]. - The Indian government has implemented several reforms, including GST reductions and labor market reforms, to enhance economic vitality and mitigate the impact of high U.S. tariffs [5]. Group 3: Investment Trends - There has been a notable decline in sovereign wealth fund investments in India, dropping from $20.1 billion in 2024 to $5.7 billion in 2025, a decrease of 72% [7]. - The majority of new investments from sovereign wealth funds are now coming from the Middle East, focusing on AI and data centers, with a significant portion redirected to the U.S. [7]. - The global trend of increasing AI investments since mid-2025 has contributed to the relative weakness of the Indian stock market, which lacks a substantial number of high-tech stocks [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Investor sentiment is shifting towards markets with better returns, with a prevailing view that the Indian stock market may struggle to generate profits in a moderate economic environment [9]. - The performance of Indian companies in 2026 is expected to improve in the first half, but this growth is not anticipated to rely on AI infrastructure [9]. - The geopolitical landscape and India's positioning will become increasingly important for overseas investors [9].