[安泰科]多晶硅周评-市场观望态势未改 供需弱平衡格局渐显（2026年1月21日）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the market for polysilicon, particularly n-type materials, is currently stable with transaction prices holding steady despite slight fluctuations in individual company quotes. The average transaction price for n-type recycled material is 59,200 yuan/ton, while n-type granular silicon is at 55,800 yuan/ton, both showing no change compared to the previous period [1][2]. - The market atmosphere is described as quiet, with new orders being scarce and transactions primarily consisting of small, tentative deals. This stalemate is attributed to two main factors: first, some demand has been preemptively fulfilled by 2025, leading to a lack of urgency in procurement from downstream silicon wafer manufacturers; second, rising silver prices have significantly increased production costs for battery cells and modules, limiting the impact of slight price reductions in polysilicon on downstream costs [1][2]. - A significant reduction in polysilicon production is anticipated, with major companies planning to halt or reduce output in January, leading to an expected average monthly production of around 80,000 tons in the first quarter. Although terminal demand has not shown substantial recovery, the drastic supply contraction is expected to gradually lead to a weak balance in supply and demand [2][3]. Group 2 - The key variables influencing price trends in the polysilicon market include: first, any substantial changes in downstream operating rates, particularly the effective transmission of order demand from the battery and module sectors to the silicon wafer sector; second, the sustainability of inventory reduction, as high inventory levels could suppress prices if demand does not recover in a timely manner [2][3]. - The transaction price data for domestic solar-grade polysilicon indicates that the highest price for n-type recycled material is 63,000 yuan/ton, while the lowest is 50,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 59,200 yuan/ton showing no fluctuation [3].