固收指数月报 | 2026高收益美元债预期回报7.7%-9.6%，违约风险影响几何；中国指数上月关键分析

Core Insights - Bloomberg is the first global index provider to include Chinese bonds in mainstream global indices, offering a unique perspective on the Chinese bond market through the Bloomberg China Fixed Income Index series [3] - The Bloomberg China Aggregate Index recorded a return of -0.08% in December, with a year-to-date return of 0.61% and an annual return of 8.00% for 2024 [5][6] - The Bloomberg China High Liquidity Credit (LCC) Index achieved a return of 0.14% in December, while the Chinese dollar credit bond index (Kungfu bonds) saw a year-to-date return of 7.33% but a negative return of -0.04% in December [5][6] Monthly Index Performance - The China Aggregate Index (I08271CN) had a month-to-date return of -0.08% and a year-to-date return of 0.61%, with an index level of 244.42 [7] - The Treasury Index (I08273CN) recorded a month-to-date return of -0.27% and a year-to-date return of 0.08%, with an index level of 233.27 [7] - The Corporate Index (I08275CN) achieved a month-to-date return of 0.14% and a year-to-date return of 1.84%, with an index level of 275.58 [7] Market Developments - In September, China opened its bond repurchase market to foreign investors, with the buyout repurchase scale increasing from 810 million RMB to 13.1 billion RMB [9] - The Bloomberg Asian (ex-Japan) high-yield dollar bond index (I29381) is projected to have total returns between 7.7% and 9.6% for 2026, with positive returns expected under most scenarios despite potential default risks [9]