人身险预定利率研究值再微降，但离定价调整线尚有距离

Core Viewpoint - The latest research value for life insurance preset interest rates has decreased slightly to 1.89%, maintaining stability and aligning with previous analyst predictions [3][4]. Group 1: Research Value Trends - The preset interest rate research value has experienced four consecutive declines, with the rate decreasing from 2.34% at the beginning of 2025 to 1.89% in the latest quarter, although the rate of decline has been narrowing [5][6]. - The preset interest rate is a critical factor in pricing life insurance products, and the quarterly research value serves as a benchmark for potential large-scale adjustments in pricing [5][7]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework - According to the notification from the National Financial Regulatory Administration, if the preset interest rate for ordinary life insurance products exceeds the research value by 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters, a timely adjustment to the preset interest rate is required [5][7]. - The current preset interest rate ceiling for life insurance products is set at 2%, which is only 11 basis points above the research value of 1.89%, indicating that it is still 14 basis points away from the threshold for adjustment [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the preset interest rate research value may have reached its bottom, with a positive outlook for the industry’s transformation and development in the coming period [8]. - If the current levels of government bond yields, 5-year fixed deposit rates, and 5-year LPR remain stable, the projected preset interest rate research value for the end of 2026 is estimated to be 2%, aligning with the current ceiling for ordinary life insurance products [9].