2026年股、汇、债、金如何演绎？中行白皮书给出全景答案

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market in 2025 is characterized by significant changes and restructuring, with gold emerging as a key asset due to rising geopolitical risks and challenges to the US dollar credit system, leading to a historical price surge of 64.56% throughout the year [1][5]. Group 1: Gold's Performance and Market Dynamics - Gold's strong rise is rooted in deep changes in the global economy and monetary order, with US government debt at high levels and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to a nearly 30-year low [5]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is accelerating, with central banks globally purchasing 633.6 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, and 95% of them planning to continue increasing their gold reserves in the coming year [5]. - Gold has become a solid "ballast" in turbulent markets, supported by its monetary attributes, safe-haven function, and financial value, reinforcing its status as hard currency during the main upward trend [5]. Group 2: Strategic Insights from Bank of China - Bank of China's "Global Asset Allocation White Paper" has consistently highlighted the diminishing credit of the dollar since 2023, maintaining a bullish outlook on gold for three consecutive years, with cumulative investor returns approaching 150% and an annualized return exceeding 31% by the end of 2025 [7]. - The white paper's predictions for the A-share market, RMB exchange rate, and bond market have been validated throughout the year, indicating a robust market resilience and a stable RMB against the dollar [9]. Group 3: Future Asset Allocation Strategy - The latest white paper for 2026 outlines a clear priority for global asset allocation, emphasizing precious metals, non-ferrous metals, equities, and bonds, with gold expected to maintain its upward potential despite short-term volatility [11]. - A-shares are anticipated to benefit from global easing and domestic capital inflows, while the RMB is expected to exhibit stable, two-way fluctuations [12].