黑天鹅，突袭！日本遭遇“特拉斯时刻”！

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing significant volatility, reminiscent of the "Truss moment" in the UK, with potential implications for global debt markets as major financial institutions adjust their strategies in response to rising yields and economic policies [1][4]. Group 1: Japan's Recent Actions - Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group plans to significantly increase its holdings of Japanese government bonds, potentially doubling its asset portfolio of 10.6 trillion yen (approximately 67 billion USD) as overseas returns become less attractive [2]. - The volatility in Japanese government bonds is expected to impact global debt markets, particularly U.S. Treasuries, with risk parity funds possibly needing to sell up to one-third of their current risk positions, which could lead to a bond sell-off of up to 130 billion USD in the U.S. alone [2][3]. Group 2: Market Implications - The recent sell-off in Japanese government bonds has already affected the U.S. bond market, as indicated by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet's discussions with Japanese officials regarding the situation [4]. - Concerns about Japan's fiscal health are rising, with projections indicating that by the end of 2025, Japan's total government debt will reach 229.6% of GDP, leading to increased long-term bond yields and further fiscal pressure [4]. Group 3: Broader Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that while there are concerns about the impact of Japanese bond volatility on global markets, the U.S. Treasury market remains the largest and most liquid, and significant changes to its role in the financial system will take time [5].