日债遭急剧抛售，30年来首次进入4时代

Core Viewpoint - The recent turmoil in the Japanese bond market, characterized by a significant sell-off, has raised concerns about fiscal sustainability and its potential ripple effects on global bond markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market Dynamics - Major Japanese financial institutions, including Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, have signaled intentions to double their Japanese government bond holdings, providing some confidence to the market [1]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds fell to 2.92% from a previous high of 2.33%, while the 20-year and 30-year yields remained elevated at 3.251% and 3.73%, respectively [1]. - The sell-off began on January 19, coinciding with political sensitivities surrounding early elections, leading to heightened investor concerns about Japan's economic outlook [1][2]. Group 2: Causes of the Sell-off - The sell-off was triggered by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement of a large-scale tax cut and spending plan, raising fears of increased fiscal deficits and the need for more bond issuance [5][6]. - The recent poor auction results for 20-year bonds, with a bid-to-cover ratio of only 3.19, have exacerbated market fears, indicating a potential cycle of selling and increasing anxiety [6]. - Concerns about Japan's fiscal discipline have intensified, with the government debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 240%, and the proposed budget for FY2026 significantly exceeding that of FY2025 [5][6]. Group 3: Global Impact - The turmoil in the Japanese bond market has led to rising yields in the U.S., Australia, Germany, and New Zealand, indicating a spillover effect on global bond markets [2][14]. - Investors are increasingly wary of fiscal sustainability, which could lead to a reallocation of funds back to Japan from foreign bonds, raising global borrowing costs [15][16]. - The situation reflects a broader trend of rising interest rates and debt levels across developed economies, with Japan's unique position as a major creditor nation amplifying the potential for systemic risk [14][16].