创业邦·2026-01-22 00:09Core Viewpoint - TSMC's recent financial report has provided strong validation for the AI industry, showcasing significant growth and robust capital expenditure plans that signal future demand for chip manufacturing [6][9]. Financial Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue growth for eight consecutive quarters and a gross margin surpassing 60%, comparable to software giants [6][12]. - The company has projected capital expenditures of $52 billion to $56 billion for 2026, a substantial increase from $40.9 billion in 2025, indicating confidence in future orders from clients like NVIDIA and AMD [9][28]. Market Dynamics - TSMC's capital expenditure is primarily allocated for building production lines and purchasing equipment, which typically takes 2-3 years to yield results, thus reflecting anticipated growth in orders from chip design companies [9][28]. - The demand for AI computing chips has surged, leading to a shortage of 3nm capacity, with TSMC reportedly halting new 3nm orders due to full capacity bookings for the next two years [18][25]. Competitive Landscape - TSMC's dominance in the 3nm process technology is underscored by its ability to maintain high gross margins, driven by strong demand from AI chip manufacturers [14][18]. - Competitors like Samsung and Intel have struggled to keep pace, with TSMC's 3nm technology remaining unmatched in terms of performance and yield [18][20]. Advanced Packaging - TSMC's advanced packaging technology, particularly CoWoS, has become critical for AI chips, with significant demand leading to a substantial increase in its capital expenditure allocation for this segment [19][20]. - The company has captured a significant share of the advanced packaging market, with NVIDIA alone accounting for approximately 57.4% of TSMC's current capacity [22][20]. Client Relationships - TSMC's collaboration with NVIDIA has evolved from design processes to system-level integration, indicating a deepening partnership that may see NVIDIA surpassing Apple as TSMC's largest client by 2026 [25][28]. - The shift in client dynamics highlights TSMC's reliance on major customers for securing orders and mitigating risks associated with advanced process technologies [25][28].