“非美投资趋势显著，中国股市更乐观，贵金属热潮将持续”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing popularity of non-US assets amid geopolitical uncertainties and the evolving dynamics of the US Federal Reserve, highlighting a bullish outlook on precious metals and the Chinese stock market [3][4]. Group 1: Non-US Investment Trends - Global markets are expected to see expanded participation, with many non-US economies outperforming the US stock market, driven by high US market valuations and a strong holding of US stocks [5]. - The US dollar is anticipated to weaken in the coming years, benefiting non-US assets, particularly emerging markets, as most debt issuance and investment sources in these economies are dollar-denominated [5][6]. - US investors are increasingly reallocating funds to non-US markets, as they recognize better returns outside the US, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of investment [5][6]. Group 2: Outlook on Chinese Stock Market - There is a positive shift in sentiment towards Chinese stocks, supported by government stimulus measures, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure [7]. - The overall view on Chinese stocks is becoming more optimistic, with expectations of value creation opportunities amid fiscal and monetary easing [7]. Group 3: Comparison with Indian Market - The Indian market is experiencing a shift as investors compare it with China, leading to a sell-off of Indian assets in favor of Chinese investments [8]. - While the Indian market is not expected to perform poorly, it is currently viewed as expensive compared to other emerging markets [8]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence Risk - The article highlights concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid escalating conflicts with President Trump, although the market does not seem overly worried about this risk [9]. - There is a potential scenario where the Fed may aggressively cut rates, which could lead to concerns about its independence and inflation risks [9][10]. - The expectation is that the Fed will maintain its independence, but new appointments may lean towards more dovish policies, potentially supporting further rate cuts [10][11]. Group 5: Precious Metals Bull Market - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing a bull market driven by geopolitical risks, policy uncertainties, and increasing demand [12][13]. - Gold prices are expected to rise further, with structural factors supporting this trend, while silver may have more volatility due to its speculative nature [13][14]. - Industrial metals are also projected to benefit from favorable demand dynamics, although trade and tariff issues may introduce volatility [14].