【安泰科】工业硅周评—弱需求主导市场格局延续（2026年1月15-21日）

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, with a divergence between futures and spot prices, leading to a generally stable price environment despite fluctuations in specific regions [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - The supply of industrial silicon is showing a clear contraction trend, particularly in the southwestern region where production is significantly reduced. In Sichuan, production has nearly halted, while in Yunnan, most companies have ceased operations except for a few fulfilling long-term contracts [1][2]. - In the northwest region, production remains relatively stable, but there are increasing expectations of production cuts. A major factory in Xinjiang plans to reduce output by 50% starting at the end of January, which could significantly impact national production levels [1][2]. - Some small to medium-sized silicon plants in Inner Mongolia have begun maintenance, indicating a further tightening of supply in the future [1][2]. Demand Side Summary - The downstream demand is showing significant structural differentiation, with a notable reduction in direct demand for industrial silicon due to increased production cuts in the polysilicon sector. Some leading companies have initiated full production halts, while others are implementing substantial reductions [2]. - The organic silicon industry is maintaining self-discipline in emissions reduction, and the demand for aluminum alloys is weakening marginally. Both sectors are primarily engaging in just-in-time purchasing, failing to create effective demand support [2]. - Despite the gradual contraction in supply, the overall demand, particularly in the polysilicon sector, is decreasing more prominently, leading to a still loose supply-demand balance. Social inventory is expected to continue accumulating, and spot prices lack upward momentum in the short term [2]. Price Summary - As of January 21, the national comprehensive price for industrial silicon is reported at 9,245 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week. Specific grades such as 553 and 441 are priced at 8,713 yuan and 9,169 yuan per ton, respectively, with no fluctuations observed [1][3]. - The futures price for industrial silicon fluctuated, starting at 8,845 yuan per ton and closing at 8,780 yuan per ton, with a cumulative increase of 50 yuan per ton during the week [1][3]. - Export prices have seen a decline of 50 USD per ton due to short-term fluctuations in the US dollar index, although the latest export control policies from the Ministry of Commerce do not affect industrial silicon products, keeping export channels open [2].