居民短期消费贷跌至三年来最低！贴息红利又至，实际利率有望降至“2字头”

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant reduction in short-term consumer loans among Chinese households, indicating a trend towards deleveraging and a cautious approach to borrowing in the current economic environment [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Short-term Consumer Loans - As of December 2025, the balance of short-term consumer loans has decreased to 94,900.77 billion yuan, a reduction of over 700 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2]. - This marks the first time in three years that the balance has fallen below the 95 trillion yuan threshold, reaching its lowest point since 2023 [3]. - The decline began in March 2025 when the balance was last above 100 trillion yuan, and by December 2025, it had dropped significantly, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.93% [4]. Long-term Consumer Loans - Although short-term consumer loans have shrunk, long-term consumer loans have shown weak growth, increasing from 484,977.86 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 486,820.09 billion yuan at the end of 2025, with a minimal growth of 0.38% [4]. Total Consumer Loans - The combined balance of short-term and long-term consumer loans decreased from 586,940.54 billion yuan to 581,720.86 billion yuan, a reduction of approximately 522 billion yuan, equating to a decline of about 0.9% [5]. Short-term and Long-term Business Loans - Short-term business loans also experienced a decline, dropping from 109,941.7 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 109,140.04 billion yuan at the end of 2025, a decrease of 801.66 billion yuan, or 0.73% [6]. - In contrast, long-term business loans increased from 131,505.24 billion yuan to 141,938.69 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 10,433.45 billion yuan, or approximately 7.93% [6]. Overall Loan Balances - The total balance of business loans rose from 241,446.94 billion yuan to 251,078.73 billion yuan, with an increase of 9,631.79 billion yuan, representing a growth of about 3.99% [7]. - The overall household loan balance increased from 828,387.49 billion yuan to 832,799.59 billion yuan, with a modest increase of 4,412.1 billion yuan, marking a new low growth rate of only 0.5% [7]. Policy Changes - New policies aimed at consumer loans have been introduced, including the optimization of interest subsidies, which may lead to consumer loan rates dropping to the "2" range [8][10]. - The adjustments include extending the subsidy period until December 31, 2026, and expanding the scope of eligible expenses, which could further stimulate consumer borrowing [8][10].