长债利率久违“回血”

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in the bond market has intensified following the central bank's press conference, with the LPR remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months, leading to new dynamics in market sentiment and bond yields [3][7]. Group 1: Bond Market Trends - Long-term bond yields have experienced a rare rebound after a prolonged decline, with the 30-year government bond yield dropping by 2.75 basis points and 1.6 basis points, reaching 2.261% [5][6]. - However, this upward trend was not sustained, as bond futures saw a collective decline on January 22, with the 30-year main contract falling by 0.07% to 112.170 [6][7]. - The primary market issuance has been a significant factor influencing the bond market's rebound, with a recent issuance of 160 billion yuan in 7-year fixed-rate bonds seeing a subscription multiple of 5.91 times [6][7]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The latest LPR remains at 3.0% for the 1-year and 3.5% for the 5-year, reflecting a stable monetary policy environment, with no immediate need for rate cuts or reductions [7][8]. - The central bank's commitment to maintaining liquidity in the banking system is evident, with a net injection of 309 billion yuan through reverse repos on January 22 [8]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Dynamics - There is a growing interest in foreign investment in Chinese government bonds, particularly as global markets face uncertainty, positioning Chinese bonds as a potential safe haven [9][10]. - As of November 2025, foreign institutions held 3.6 trillion yuan in Chinese bonds, with government bonds making up 56.2% of this total [10][11]. - Despite fluctuations in foreign holdings due to various market factors, the long-term trend suggests that the opening of the bond market will encourage steady foreign investment in Chinese bonds [12].