【乘联分会论坛】1月狭义乘用车零售预计180.0万辆，新能源预计80.0万辆

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and outlook of the Chinese passenger car market, highlighting the impact of policy changes and consumer behavior on sales trends in early 2026 [2][3][6]. Group 1: 2025 Market Review - In December 2025, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars reached 2.261 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0% but a month-on-month increase of 1.6% [2]. - For the entire year of 2025, narrow passenger car retail sales hit a record high of 23.745 million units, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) accounting for 12.809 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.6% and a penetration rate of 53.9% [2]. Group 2: January 2026 Market Outlook - January 2026 is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase in sales due to the release of pent-up demand from consumers returning home for the Spring Festival, despite uncertainties in the market [3]. - The national scrapping subsidy has been implemented, but the reduction in purchase tax has created a certain degree of overspending effect, leading to cautious consumer sentiment [3]. Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Most manufacturers have a neutral to optimistic sales outlook for January, with major manufacturers aiming for retail targets that are flat or slightly increased compared to the same period last year [4]. - The estimated retail market size for narrow passenger cars in January is around 1.8 million units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 20.4% but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [4]. Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - The car market started weak in early January due to the halving of the purchase tax subsidy, with daily retail sales averaging 30,000 units in the first week [5]. - Sales improved slightly in the second week, with daily retail reaching 50,000 units, and further recovery is expected in the following weeks as old-for-new subsidies are implemented [5]. Group 5: Transition to Normalization - The Chinese economy showed resilience in 2025, with total retail sales of consumer goods exceeding 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year [6]. - The old-for-new policy has significantly boosted sales, with over 2.6 trillion yuan in related sales and benefiting over 360 million people, including more than 11.5 million cars [6]. - The transition period in early 2026 is marked by a shift from strong policy stimulation to reliance on product strength and normalized consumption patterns, with the penetration rate for NEVs expected to hit a temporary low [6].