100个基点！土耳其降息！

Core Viewpoint - Turkey's central bank has initiated a rate cut, reducing the benchmark interest rate from 38% to 37%, marking the first rate cut since 2026 [2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - On January 22, 2026, Turkey's central bank announced a 100 basis point reduction in the benchmark interest rate to 37% [2]. - The central bank stated that despite potential monthly fluctuations in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to rising food prices, the overall inflation trend is declining [2]. - The central bank will maintain a tight monetary policy stance until the price stability target is achieved [3]. Group 2: Historical Context of Inflation and Interest Rates - Turkey experienced a peak inflation rate of 85.5% in October 2022, prompting the central bank to restart the interest rate hike cycle in mid-2023 [3]. - By March 2024, the benchmark interest rate was raised to a high of 50%, but the central bank began a rate cut cycle again by the end of 2024 [3]. - The benchmark interest rate has been gradually reduced since then, with specific cuts recorded in 2025: - July: down 300 basis points to 43% - September: down 250 basis points to 40.5% - October: down 100 basis points to 39.5% - December: down 150 basis points to 38% [4]. Group 3: Economic Growth Projections - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth forecasts for Turkey, projecting a growth rate of 4.2% for 2026 and 4.1% for 2027, up from previous estimates of 3.7% [5]. - The IMF noted a significant difference between service and goods inflation in Turkey, with service prices showing more resilience to exchange rate shocks but exhibiting a more persistent inflation pattern [5].