海外投资者正在卖出日本国债，高市早苗：世界存在对减税的误解

Core Viewpoint - Concerns regarding Japan's fiscal policy have intensified, leading to a significant sell-off of Japanese government bonds (JGB) by overseas investors, while optimism about the stock market remains intact due to expectations of economic growth [2][4][7]. Group 1: Fiscal Concerns - Overseas investors predominantly express a "sell" sentiment towards Japanese government bonds, with Alpha Management maintaining a 100% short position since April of the previous year [4]. - The sell-off of Japanese bonds has been exacerbated by Prime Minister Kishi's announcement of plans to dissolve the House of Representatives and implement a temporary zero tax on food consumption [7]. - The yield on newly issued 10-year Japanese government bonds reached 2.38%, marking a 27-year high, reflecting rising long-term interest rates due to persistent inflation and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [7][6]. Group 2: Stock Market Optimism - Despite fiscal concerns, stock market investors are optimistic about Japan's economic growth, with some hedge funds viewing the current market as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity [8]. - Analysts predict that if the ruling Liberal Democratic Party maintains power, the Nikkei average index could rise above 60,000 points, driven by infrastructure investments and rising prices [9]. - Recent data indicates that overseas investors net purchased over 1.2 trillion yen in Japanese stocks during the first week of January, the largest scale since October 2025 [11]. Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - Concerns have been raised about potential political instability and fiscal imbalance, drawing parallels to the "Truss shock" in the UK, which resulted from large-scale tax cuts leading to market turmoil [12]. - Prime Minister Kishi emphasized that the government would not rely on special public bonds for funding tax cuts and aims to communicate the importance of fiscal sustainability to the market [15][16]. - Kishi's administration claims that the primary balance has achieved a surplus for the first time in 28 years, and the proposed tax cuts are designed to be more fiscally responsible compared to opposition party proposals [16].