日本央行按兵不动，未来仍有加息空间

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% while raising inflation outlook, closely monitoring the impact of previous rate hikes on the economy and awaiting election results that may affect national spending plans [1][3]. Interest Rate Decision - The BOJ's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged aligns with the expectations of all surveyed economists, maintaining borrowing costs at a 30-year high [3]. - The voting results showed that one committee member supported a rate hike, while the others preferred to maintain the current rate [3]. Inflation Outlook - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that potential inflation is expected to rise moderately, and if the economic situation develops as anticipated, further rate increases will be considered [4]. - Ueda emphasized that the effects of the last rate hike will take time to permeate through the economy and prices, and the bank will closely examine these impacts [4][5]. Currency and Financial Environment - The yen has been weakening, with the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing 159 for the first time since January 14 [6]. - Ueda noted that the BOJ will flexibly conduct bond operations under special circumstances to stabilize yields, particularly due to the unstable supply and demand for long-term Japanese government bonds [4]. Economic and Price Forecast - The BOJ's report on economic and price outlook indicates a slow recovery in the Japanese economy, supported by policy measures and a rebound in overseas economies, with a forecasted GDP growth of 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.8% for fiscal years 2025-2027 [9]. - Short-term inflation is expected to narrow, with core consumer prices projected to fall below 2% in the first half of 2026, influenced by government measures and a decrease in food price inflation [10]. Financial Stability - The current financial environment in Japan remains accommodative, with a stable financial system and smooth financial intermediation activities [10].