创新药还能加仓？这场会定调2026

Core Viewpoint - The efficiency of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies in research and development is putting pressure on American firms, leading to a shift in strategy where multinational companies are cutting internal R&D budgets to invest in Chinese companies' pipelines [1][7]. Group 1: JPM Conference Insights - The 2026 JPM conference saw a significant presence of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical executives and investors, reflecting a positive outlook compared to previous years, with multinational companies openly expressing interest in Chinese assets [2][4]. - Chinese companies are no longer satisfied with merely licensing patents; they seek deeper involvement in clinical development and commercialization in international markets [3][10]. - The FDA's officials acknowledged the R&D efficiency of Chinese companies and suggested using AI to improve approval processes, indicating a more collaborative approach rather than a protectionist stance [3][6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Stock Performance - Following a surge in business development (BD) transactions in 2025, the stock prices of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies saw a significant increase, but there was a market correction starting in September 2025, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index dropping over 20% by January 2026 [3][12]. - The participation of seven Chinese pharmaceutical companies in the main stage of JPM is a sign of increasing recognition and influence in the international market [12]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts in Collaboration - There is a growing trend among Chinese pharmaceutical companies to engage in deeper collaborations, such as the NewCo model, which allows for shared operations and deeper partnerships with American firms [10][11]. - American biotech companies are considering establishing NewCo in China to leverage the country's advantages in R&D efficiency and cost [11]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Chinese companies focusing on unmet clinical needs and exploring new therapeutic areas beyond traditional targets, such as liver diseases [11]. - Multinational companies are actively seeking new opportunities due to impending patent cliffs, with significant interest in mergers and acquisitions to bolster their pipelines [14][15]. - PwC's report indicates that patent expirations could risk $47 billion in drug sales over the next four years, prompting increased acquisition activities in the pharmaceutical sector [16].